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I have been reading stories about the potential for a pandemic in relation to the H1N1 man-bird-pig flu. Yesterday I wrote about Napolitano saying that she thinks this winter H1N1 will be more like the 1957 pandemic and kill only 70,000 and not be like the 1918 pandemic which killed many more. This contradicts some studies. The H1N1 flu has already mutated to a form that is resistant to tamiflu, one of the two drugs known to work on it (the other two main drugs are known to be ineffective).

According to estimates, 20-25% of the population will be at home, either taking care of a sick relative or sick themselves. They are not in the work force. I wrote yesterday about the economic impact this could have. Today I will write about the societal impact.

Most groceries only have 3 days of food on hand at any given time. They rely on computer applications, tied into the cash registers, which feed off of bar codes, to place orders as items are sold. Trucks then move the goods from a warehouse to the store as needed. The warehouses use a similar approach when ordering from the distributors/manufacturers. This reduces the amount of stock space required in the store as well as lowering spoilage for anything that might spoil. The biggest effect is that it saves money, instead of having to purchase (or agree to buy on credit as many stores do) many items that may not sell, each individual store buys in smaller quantities and reorders as products are sold. This is called “Just in Time Delivery”.

This model makes a lot of sense, providing that the supply chain is never disrupted. It keeps costs lower and allows for shelf space to be utilized more efficiently allowing for greater selection and lower prices to the consumer. It has a great weakness though, if the supply line is disrupted you will see shortages on food stuffs fairly quickly.

If you live in a storm prone area, you will find that just before a storm the shelves on a store tend to be fairly bare for a few days and then it returns to normal. Long ago in a galaxy far away I worked at a grocery store, and every winter just before it would snow a whopping 1 inch the shelves would be plucked clean. People would stock up on food as if the apocalypse is at hand. We used to joke about this, however I now see this as a larger problem.

If 70,000 die, then you are looking at closer to 10 times that hospitalized, which will cause many hospitals to be turning patients away as they are totally full. Most hospitals regularly are at 75% capacity, so it does not take many before they are full and the media starts to report on that aspect causing even more panic.

Some of those that will be infected will surely be truckers. The fine men and women who deliver all the goods that everyone is clamoring to buy, despite common sense telling them to pay off their credit cards, or other debts first. If there is a sufficient shortage of them, the supply chain will become slightly disrupted. It will not take much to ruin the Just in Time delivery system that is in place. Even a 5-10% disruption in the number of available drivers can cause a disruption.

A perfect storm in this regard can also come about. Lets say that people are in a state of panic because the media is hyping stories about how man-bird-pig flu is hospitalizing so many people that hospitals are all overflowing. I think that is easy to believe. Then lets say that 5-10% of the truckers are sick and unable to make deliveries. Lets add to this people stocking up because of fear of the virus and they want to stay off the streets, or they did a little extra shopping at the onset of the virus so they would not have to go out for 2 weeks.

You now have an increased demand, decreased supply, and media spread panic. The media is sure to cover how the shelves are bare right next to their coverage of how the hospitals are overflowing. This will just cause a greater panic for people to buy anything that remains on the shelves making the problem even worse. This type of a national shortage would be really bad since most people do not follow the basic advice of storing a bit of extra food just in case.

Anyone who lives in a storm or an earthquake prone area has been told for decades to have at least 3 days extra food water and medicine on hand. DHS has said since Sept 11, 2001 that you should have 3 days of food, everyone not just those that live in disaster prone areas. I grew up in a house where 2 weeks extra food was always stored “just in case”. I think 2 weeks is a lot more prudent than 3 days. The 3 day figure is just enough so that you can stay alive until help can come, but if there is any type of manufacture/distribution shortage 3 days may not be enough.

It is not difficult to get 2 weeks of extra food, each time you go to the store just buy a day or two extra of non-perishable items and store them on the shelf. Rotate them out by eating them periodically, but try to build a food buffer instead of depleting it each week. Buy a case of bottled water (or gallon jugs, remember 1 gallon per person per day) or bottle your own. Dollar stores near me carry 6 packs of bottled water for um you guessed it $1. This allows for less disruption if something does happen (fire, earthquake, flood, tornado, terrorism, little green men invading, etc). This can also turn a panic situation into one where you can relax with a bowl of popcorn watching the riots on TV (even if there is only 1 riot involving 5 people and lasting 10 minutes, the news should be able to loop that for a few days).

You could always look at costco, they have a “years worth of food” bundle for both 1 person and 2 people. Hey, they even deliver it straight to your house. I have not tasted the food, so I cant say its good, but who does not like powdered eggs and powdered milk?